Carolina did not want this matchup, but it made a strong early statement with a 2-0 win in Game 1. The Hurricanes would have had an easier path against either Pittsburgh or Philadelphia, both of whom finished with fewer points than Ottawa.
Instead, they face an opponent that’s skilled enough to match them and disciplined enough to shut down their shooting lanes. Carolina has built its success on shot volume, and Ottawa is one of the best teams in the league at limiting it.
The Hurricanes won the regular-season series 2-1, but that number comes with context. Travis Green’s group played the first two meetings without goaltender Linus Ullmark, who was away from the team. The one time Carolina faced Ullmark during the regular season, the Senators handled them comfortably in a 6-3 win just two weeks ago.
Ullmark was sharp again in Game 1, but this Sens squad simply couldn’t generate enough offense to support him.
Even with Carolina getting the result it needed at home, this is far from settled. Let’s break it down.
How the Hurricanes Can Win
Carolina has to get Ottawa to take penalties. The Senators’ defensive strengths don’t hold up nearly as well when they’re down a skater, and the Canes have a power play capable of taking advantage. Forcing the issue and generating those opportunities will be critical.
A lot of that falls on coaching. Rod Brind’Amour has been through this before, guiding Carolina through the first round in each of the past seven seasons, including two trips to the conference finals. This is where that experience has to show.
Matchups will also be key. With last change at home, Brind’Amour has the ability to put Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov in favorable spots, and he’ll need to take full advantage. Aho led the team with 80 points, while Svechnikov was a major factor on the power play with 12 points.
Above all, Carolina has to be opportunistic. Ottawa won’t give many openings, and if you don’t convert when they come, you may not get another. The Canes’ high-volume approach has carried them all season, but in this series, efficiency will matter more.
How the Senators Can Win
Ottawa needs its goaltending to be in top form. The Senators’ biggest risk has been their last line of defense, which is why they entered the playoffs as the lowest seed. Ottawa struggled through the winter months without Linus Ullmark.
Things started to round into form late in the season. Over their final eight games, the Senators allowed three goals or fewer six times. Of the two exceptions, both came on back-to-backs, including one start from backup James Reimer. Ullmark allowed two goals or fewer in six of his final 10 starts.
That trend continued in Game 1. Ullmark played well and allowed just two goals, but it still wasn’t enough. That’s the margin Ottawa is dealing with in this series.
Ottawa typically has enough scoring to support him, even with Brady Tkachuk dealing with an injury. Tim Stützle led the team with 83 points, while Drake Batherson and Dylan Cozens each added 13 power-play goals. That offense went quiet in Game 1, though, failing to capitalize despite a strong defensive effort.
That’s what makes this matchup tricky for Carolina. Ottawa should get near-elite goaltending from Linus Ullmark, and even a steady version of him could be enough. If the offense comes back to life, this series can flip in a hurry.
X-Factor
Has Carolina been properly tested for a series like this? The Hurricanes built their record by dominating the weak Metropolitan Division, with 42 of their 113 points coming there, out of a possible 52. Against the tougher Atlantic Division, they were a more modest 13-9-2.
That pattern has shown up in recent postseasons as well. Carolina has consistently handled its path through the Metro, only to run into trouble against Atlantic opponents. The Panthers exposed that gap in two of the past three Eastern Conference Finals, winning eight of nine matchups.
That’s where Ottawa’s opportunity lies. If the Senators can push Carolina out of its comfort zone early, particularly by splitting games in Raleigh, they can introduce real doubt into a team that hasn’t always handled that kind of pressure well. That’s when panic can creep in. With nothing to lose, Ottawa becomes a dangerous foe in what is already a fairly even series.
There is one caveat. Ottawa has never won a Game 7, going 0-6 all-time. That puts added importance on closing this series early, because if it stretches the distance, history isn’t on their side.
Prediction
This looks like the most even series in the Eastern Conference. Both teams defend well, limit shot volume, and have enough scoring to win.
That points to a long series, and if it goes the distance, the edge shifts to Carolina. Between the crowd in Raleigh and Ottawa’s Game 7 history, it’s hard to pick against the Hurricanes.
The Pick: Hurricanes in 7
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