Eight teams remain in the 2025–26 Champions League after a high-scoring Round of 16. Four Premier League clubs were eliminated, Sporting and Liverpool pulled off comebacks, and Bayern Munich cruised past Atalanta.
The quarterfinals begin in the first full week of April. Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, PSG, and Liverpool are all on one side of the draw, which helps explain why Arsenal are priced as the favorites to win it all.
The Gunners face Sporting, theoretically the weakest remaining team in the competition, in the quarterfinals before a potential semifinal matchup against Barcelona or Atlético Madrid.
Champions League Odds
-
Arsenal: +220
-
Bayern Munich: +340
-
Barcelona: +470
-
PSG: +500
-
Real Madrid: +750
-
Liverpool: +950
-
Atletico Madrid: +2000
-
Sporting: +4500
Quarter-Final Ties
Flawed Teams at the Top
Barcelona emphatically defeated Newcastle and PSG hammered Chelsea, but both sides showed flaws in their Round of 16 ties. Chelsea outplayed PSG for much of the first leg, while Barcelona were often exposed at the back, including on Newcastle’s two goals at the Camp Nou on Wednesday.
Real Madrid are dealing with injuries and don’t look nearly as formidable as their recent Champions League-winning sides. Liverpool’s form has been inconsistent throughout the season.
Of the six teams with realistic title aspirations, Arsenal and Bayern appear the most well-rounded. The Gunners’ defense should serve them well in the next couple of rounds, though there are still questions about whether they have the firepower to match Barcelona over two legs.
Bayern face the unenviable path of taking on Real Madrid, followed by either PSG or Liverpool. Their nine-point lead in the Bundesliga is an advantage and should allow Vincent Kompany to rest key veterans, including Harry Kane, ahead of Champions League matches.
Skewed Draw
The current Champions League format means the draw is known well in advance, which is a big reason Arsenal have been favorites for some time. Still, the demands on Mikel Arteta’s squad could undermine their chances.
Sporting should be handled, but there are no guarantees in knockout football. Beyond that, Arsenal are balancing a Premier League title race and an FA Cup run. If Manchester City close the gap, Arteta will surely prioritize Premier League success over the Champions League.
That could leave the door open for Barcelona. Could Diego Simeone find a way past them and set up a difficult semifinal with Arsenal?
The La Liga sides should not be overlooked at this stage. Atlético may not match up well with the teams on the other side of the draw in a final, but Barcelona’s attack is strong enough to keep them competitive, even against a structured defense like Arsenal’s.
Wide-Open Title Race
This year’s Champions League feels wide open. Arsenal may never get a better chance to win their first European title, but Arteta’s side are far from unstoppable.
PSG’s second-leg performance against Chelsea was ominous for the rest of the field, as was Bayern’s demolition of Atalanta. If Real Madrid can get key players healthy, there is a path for them to get past Bayern, though it is a significant ask.
As of March 19, Bayern, PSG, Arsenal, and Barcelona are rightly viewed as the most likely finalists by FanDuel.
Both Bayern and PSG bring significant Champions League experience and would pose a serious threat to Arsenal in a potential final. PSG are a stronger betting option than Barcelona, and the same can be said for Bayern, who have been quietly dominant this season with seven league-phase wins followed by an impressive Round of 16 performance.
Champions League Semi-final Predictions
Bayern Munich vs PSG
Arsenal vs Barcelona
Best bet: Bayern to win title (+340)
If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.
