With the first Game 7 of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs now behind us, attention shifts to Montreal’s next test.
The Canadiens survived a grueling seven-game series against the two-time champion Tampa Bay Lightning and now head on the road to face Buffalo, with Game 1 set for Wednesday.
Montreal enters battle-tested and confident after the upset, but the Sabres won’t let their long-awaited return to playoff relevance slip away easily.
Here’s a look at the series, the prediction, and a Wednesday total worth targeting.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens
Prediction 1: Buffalo In 6
Buffalo’s rise didn’t happen overnight, but it still caught a lot of people off guard. When you step back and look at it, though, it makes sense. This is the result of steady player development, better structure, and a culture shift that’s finally showing up on the ice.
The biggest edge starts on the defensive side. Buffalo has stayed relatively healthy, which is rare this time of year, and their star group of Mattias Samuelsson, Owen Power, Bowen Byram, and Rasmus Dahlin can handle extended minutes without things breaking down. They move the puck cleanly, limit second chances, and don’t give opponents easy looks, which is a big reason Buffalo has been able to dictate how games are played.
Montreal’s path feels familiar for a reason. They’ve been on a similar rebuild timeline and now find themselves knocking on the door. Like Buffalo, they’re young, fast, and eager to prove they belong. This matchup is less about experience and more about execution.
The regular season supports that. These teams split the regular season 2–2, and the goal totals were even at 13-13. There isn’t much separating them on paper, which is why this projects as a competitive series.
Where Buffalo starts to pull ahead is in the areas that tend to matter most this time of year. They finished 50-23-8 and first in the Atlantic, while putting up impressive numbers across the board with 3.45 goals per game, 2.93 goals allowed, a 19.5 percent power play, and an 81.9 percent penalty kill. That balance gives them the ability to adjust to different styles.
There’s also a situational advantage. Buffalo closed out Boston in six and has had five full days to reset. Montreal is coming off a draining seven-game series against Tampa Bay, where every contest was decided by one goal and four went to overtime. That kind of stretch takes a toll physically and mentally, especially early in the next round.
Buffalo has also shown it can flip a game quickly. The four-goal first period in Game 4 against Boston is a good example of how dangerous they can be when things start to click.
Montreal still has its strengths. Their offense off the rush has been one of their best weapons, generating five goals on 17 high-probability rush chances this postseason. That style can cause problems if Buffalo gets out of position, and the Canadiens have enough top-end talent to take over stretches of a game.
In the end, Montreal relies more on those bursts, while Buffalo brings stronger defensive play, special teams, rest, and home ice. Over the course of a longer series, that combination usually wins out.
Prediction 2: Game 1 Under 6.5 goals
Game 1 sets up well for a slower start.
Montreal is coming off a physically demanding seven-game battle and now has to go on the road against a rested Buffalo team. That will often lead to a more conservative approach early, focused on limiting chances and settling into the pace.
Buffalo’s defensive profile supports that. Their goals-against numbers and penalty kill point toward a more controlled, lower-scoring grinder, and their excellent blue line should be able to slow down an inconsistent Montreal offense.
There’s nothing in the head-to-head history that suggests a shootout. The teams combined for 13 goals each across four regular season meetings.
The postseason trends also line up well. Only three of their combined thirteen games have gone over six goals so far, which supports the under.
With Montreal likely feeling the effects of its previous series and Buffalo more comfortable dictating the pace, this certainly shapes up to be a low-scoring opener.
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