Most starting pitchers have made between seven and nine starts. We’re nearing a third of the way through the campaign, so we’ve got a pretty clear idea of which arms are in legitimate Cy Young contention.
Back-to-back AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal has been effectively ruled out of consideration through injury. Garrett Crochet is also on the shelf after some early-season struggles.
Logan Webb is on the injured list and disappointed over his first few starts. Zack Wheeler has only made three starts.
So, how would our ballot look if the season ended today?
AL
1. Cam Schlittler
Schlittler has produced 0.6 more fWAR than any other American League pitcher. His 1.35 ERA sits comfortably ahead of the rest of the league, and only Will Warren and Tarik Skubal own a better Pitching+ mark in the AL.
The young right-hander showed serious upside during stretches of 2025, but this has gone far beyond even the most optimistic expectations in New York. Schlittler has completely dominated through the opening months and currently holds a sizable lead in the AL Cy Young race.
2. Max Fried
It speaks to how spectacular the Yankees’ rotation has been that they occupy the top two spots on this ballot, with two other starters who could also receive votes if the season ended today. Fried leads the majors in innings pitched and ranks second behind Schlittler in AL pitching fWAR.
Fried may not post gaudy strikeout totals, and his arsenal lacks the flash typically associated with Cy Young winners. What he does possess is elite command and an ability to consistently disrupt hitters’ timing, which helps explain why he currently leads the AL in xERA.
3. Dylan Cease
Several pitchers had a case for this spot, but Cease earns the nod after entering the weekend leading the AL in strikeouts per nine innings while ranking second in FIP. Davis Martin, Parker Messick, and José Soriano all deserved consideration as well.
A rough patch against Boston and Minnesota, where Cease allowed seven earned runs across two outings, knocked him behind the pace set by Schittler. He responded Friday with seven scoreless innings and 10 strikeouts, solidifying his place in the top three.
NL
1. Paul Skenes
Skenes’ terrible opening day against the Mets is long in the rearview. Since then, he has posted a 1.31 ERA across seven starts, while his 1.96 xERA stands comfortably ahead of every other National League pitcher.
Those five runs against New York damaged his overall numbers a bit, but there’s little debate about who has been the best arm in baseball over the past two months. Even with five NL starters carrying a higher Pitching+, Skenes continues to raise the bar every time he takes the mound and is the obvious frontrunner.
2. Nolan McLean
McLean ranks second behind Skenes in xERA and sits fourth in Pitching+. Jacob Misiorowski is the only National League starter ahead of him in K-BB%, while McLean also places second in xFIP.
Thankfully, baseball discourse has mostly moved beyond judging pitchers strictly by team record, because there is very little else to nitpick about McLean’s season. He hasn’t matched Skenes pitch for pitch, but he also has not allowed more than three earned runs in any game this year.
3. Bryce Elder
By far the most surprising name among the six featured here, Elder was one of the least effective high-volume starters in baseball last season. In 2026, he has completely flipped the script, posting a 2.84 xERA driven largely by an extremely low barrel rate.
His stuff hasn’t changed dramatically. Elder is simply leaning less on the sinker while increasing four-seamer usage to create more variation, and the slider has taken a major step forward compared to previous years.
If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.
